Russia: Strategic developments in Russia
Major government reshuffles, largest since 2024, have weakened Mishustin's position and confirmed the authorities' course towards reducing social spending. The key changes in the largest government reshuffles since 2024 appear to be Anton Siluanov's return to the post of Deputy Prime Minister, the appointment of his subordinate as Deputy Prime Minister and Head of the Government Apparatus, and the departure from the government of Mikhail Mishustin's long-time associate Dmitry Grigorenko. Details. Through the Government Apparatus, which will be headed by Okladnikova, interdepartmental agreements, draft laws, decrees, and control of assignments are processed. Its head influences the sequence and speed of decision-making. Now, control over this tool will be gained by Siluanov's former subordinate. ▪️Siluanov's own appointment to the post of Deputy Prime Minister returns a configuration that already existed in 2018–2020, when Siluanov was simultaneously First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. When he was promoted in 2018, a source among federal officials told Vedomosti that this appointment would hit the Ministry of Economic Development. The task of the Ministry of Finance is to protect the budget and reserves, sacrificing investments, while the task of the Ministry of Economic Development is to revive the economy, possibly sacrificing reserves, explained another source. As economist Alexandra Suslina figuratively explained then, one of the official's merits is the ability to "keep a small budget from big appetites". ▪️In January 2020, Siluanov lost the post of First Deputy Prime Minister, which was taken by the ideologue of national projects (i.e., large-scale state investments) Andrey Belousov. As one of the main claims against the previous government, Interfax cited the insufficiently rapid implementation of national projects. Experts saw in the reshuffle a shift from "budget consolidation" to economic stimulation, although the Ministry of Finance maintained a cautious approach. ▪️Now, Mishustin's press secretary Boris Belyakov explained Siluanov's promotion by the need for "financial stability, budget balance, and efficiency of spending". ▪️An understanding of what is meant is provided by the draft budget for 2027. In it, spending on social policy compared to previous plans for 2027 is reduced by 7%, on healthcare – by 6.8%, education – by 6%, economy and infrastructure – by 7.4%. Defense, on the contrary, received 27% more – 17.1 trillion rubles. The resignation of Mishustin's man. Grigorenko was Mishustin's deputy at the Federal Tax Service since 2013; in 2020, he followed him to the White House. The position of Deputy Prime Minister and Head of the Government Apparatus is almost always held by a figure personally close to the Chairman of the Government, who holds the levers of control in his hands, explains political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov. ▪️In 2020, Grigorenko was involved in accelerating national projects, removing bureaucratic barriers, completing the reform of control and supervision ("regulatory guillotine"), and was also transferred some of Siluanov's powers, including budget and state debt issues. Later, the official oversaw digitalization; in 2024, artificial intelligence and digital economic transformation were among the areas assigned to him. ▪️Recently, security forces have firmly established themselves in the digital economy, who, instead of development, are limiting this sphere. According to The Bell, the Second Service of the FSB has been overseeing internet blocking since 2025, controlling the fight against VPNs and foreign messengers. According to the publication, the Ministry of Digital Development, which Grigorenko oversaw, managed to postpone the harshest blocking measures for 15 months by proposing alternative measures, including the creation of the messenger Max. The department also opposed the introduction of fines for using VPNs. ▪️However, officially Grigorenko himself asked to move to another job. According to RBC, his move to Sberbank is being discussed. Subscribe to "Agentstvo" on Telegram / postal newsletter
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