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United States: Protests in Washington D.C.
In the US, midterm elections for Congress are being held. Key points: What kind of elections are these? Today, US citizens are electing all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 senators. Simultaneously, gubernatorial elections are being held in 36 states, along with elections for state authorities. They are called "midterm" because they occur in the middle of a four-year presidential term. The foundation of this system was laid during the creation of the US Constitution in 1787 to balance Congress and the president. Since then, every second parliamentary election falls in the middle of a presidential term. When will the results be known? The first polling stations will close at 18:00 US Eastern Time 02:00 MSK on November 4th, and the last at 09:00 MSK. A preliminary picture will start to emerge overnight, but races in undecided districts and states may require several days of counting. Over 40 million people have already voted early or by mail. The new composition of Congress will only take office on January 3, 2027. Until then, current deputies and senators will continue to perform their duties. How do the chambers differ? The House of Representatives is completely re-elected every two years: deputies represent districts, and the number of seats for each state depends on its population. In the Senate, each state has two representatives, regardless of its size. Senators are elected for six years, with approximately one-third of the composition renewed every two years. The agreement of both chambers is required to pass a federal law. Who is leading? Democrats are clear favorites in the House of Representatives, while the outcome of the fight for the Senate is undecided. According to VoteHub, the probability of the House of Representatives coming under Democratic control is 89%, and the Senate is 68%. The Economist estimates the Democrats' chances of gaining a majority in the lower house at 93%, and in the upper house at 52%. What is the current situation? Currently, the Republican Party controls both houses of Congress. They have 219 out of 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 53 out of 100 seats in the Senate. How many seats are needed to win? A majority in the House of Representatives is 218 seats. In the Senate, Democrats and allied independents need 51 seats, meaning a net gain of four relative to the current 47. In a 50:50 split, control would remain with the Republicans thanks to the decisive vote of Vice President Jay D. Vance. Why is it not easy for Trump? The campaign is taking place against a backdrop of dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the war with Iran, which has led to rising fuel prices. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump's approval rating at 32%. Among registered voters, 46% prefer Democrats in the congressional elections, and 38% prefer Republicans. What will a Democratic victory change? Reuters describes several consequences: House of Representatives: Democrats will be able to block Republican bills, influence budget agreements, and conduct investigations into the activities of the Republican administration. The House of Representatives can also initiate impeachment, but impeaching the president requires a two-thirds vote of the senators present. A simple Democratic majority is insufficient. Senate: Democrats will be able to block the confirmation of judges, ministers, and ambassadors proposed by Trump. Both chambers: will have stronger positions in negotiations on government spending and the debt ceiling. However, passing their own laws without agreement with Trump will still be difficult the president has the right of veto. How will Trump respond? The president has already warned that if the Republicans lose, he will become "Mr. Veto": he will reject Democratic initiatives, hoping to force them into deals with his administration. Overcoming a veto requires a two-thirds vote in each chamber, which will be difficult for the Democrats to achieve. Trump will also retain the ability to act through presidential decrees. Main surprises. As early as last year, analysts considered Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas to be reliable Republican seats. Now they are competitive. In the House of Representatives, the fight is for districts that were once comfortable for Republicans.
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