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United Arab Emirates: Strategic developments in Abu Dhabi
Negotiations on Ukraine and the risk of new escalation in Iran. What awaits US foreign policy after the elections? Negotiations with Russia and Ukraine have already been scheduled for the week after the US midterm elections. Simultaneously, the Trump administration is discussing further actions against Iran. The end of the elections may remove one of the key constraints on resuming active combat operations. 🔵 War in Ukraine. Representatives of the US, Russia and Ukraine must meet 10–11 November in Abu Dhabi. These will be the first three-party talks since February, when the process was interrupted by the war of the US and Israel against Iran. Washington, according to media reports, expects to make progress before winter. However, the Russian delegation, as in February, will be led by Vladimir Medinsky. Axios wrote that due to his position, discussions went nowhere. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy noted that Medinsky, like Putin, loves to philosophize about the 'historical roots' of the war. RBC analysts polled believe that Trump will not refuse a mediating role in the settlement of the war, since peacekeeping efforts in the Ukrainian direction became one of the central elements of the current American administration's foreign policy. Moreover, Trump will probably try to speed up negotiations before the new Congress begins work in January 2027. 🔵 Europe. Before the meeting in Abu Dhabi, the US, Ukraine, European countries and NATO will hold consultations in Brussels. As FT writes, security guarantees and the reconstruction of Ukraine will be discussed. One of the tasks is to calm European capitals, fearing being left aside from the negotiations. Washington is also preparing to ask its NATO allies for additional funds to buy weapons for Ukraine already in November, reports Bloomberg. 🔵 Iran: pre-election constraint disappears. In September Reuters reported that Trump's aides were striving to curb escalation until November 3, fearing a negative impact on Republican ratings. Strengthening of military actions was considered after voting. In late October, the US warned countries in the Persian Gulf of the possibility of starting a short but intense war with Iran after the midterm elections, WSJ reported citing sources. However, the decision has not yet been made. According to Axios, Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking attacks on Iran immediately after the elections. However, on November 2, Trump said that he is not in a hurry to decide the question of resuming military actions. Photo: Cristobal Herrera-Ulashkevich / EPA Subscribe to 'Novaya-Evrope'
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